A Viewer’s Guide to Election Night 2020
2 Things to Ignore and 3 to Care About on November 3rd
By Zachary Guffey, MPP
1. Despite the temptation, ignore national polls — they’re meaningless.
In the United States, voters do not directly elect the president of the United States. Instead, they vote for delegates to represent their state in the Electoral College. The number of Electoral College delegates varies from state-to-state, but total 538 with a candidate winning when they reach a majority of 270. This means that although former Vice President Joe Biden is leading in national polls by 8.5 points, little information is gained from such knowledge. Instead, savvy election viewers should pay attention to more pertinent battleground states, or states that are more likely to swing towards one candidate or another.
2. Pay attention to Pennsylvania, the state most likely to decide the election, but don’t expect conclusive results.
This year, FiveThirtyEight rates Pennsylvania as the most likely state (36% chance) to be the “tipping point” at which one candidate overtakes the other and wins the overall election. This means that what happens in Pennsylvania really, really matters. Currently, FiveThirtyEight’s election model – which takes into account polling, economic trends, uncertainty indicators, etc. – predicts that 85 out of 100 times, Biden wins Pennsylvania. However, polls in the state show that Biden’s lead averages less than three points over President Trump, well within the margin of error.
To make election night more complicated, Pennsylvania has allowed ballots to arrive in the mail until Friday, November 6. Therefore, the final totals and winner from Pennsylvania may not be known for several days. So, while election viewers should care about Pennsylvania, do not expect final results on Tuesday night.
3. Instead, focus on other swing states that will most likely report results on election night.
While notable swing states include aforementioned Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, not all expect to report robust results on election night due to restrictions on when state offices are allowed to begin counting votes and mail-in ballot deadlines. Most likely, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will have results back later in the week while Florida and North Carolina may have relatively complete results Tuesday night. If Biden wins either Florida or North Carolina, FiveThirtyEight’s model gives him an over 99% chance of winning the election; alternatively, if Trump wins both Florida and North Carolina, Trump’s chances of winning the overall election remain only 45%.
4. Pay particular attention to how candidates are reacting to news on election night.
Trump has repeatedly made false claims that the winner of the election should be made on election night and that he even expects the Supreme Court to decide the election. To prepare, both campaigns have built up massive legal teams. Already, there are more than 35 lawsuits in Michigan, 28 in Texas, almost 20 in Pennsylvania, and 10 in North Carolina. With the possibility that the courts will play a decisive role in this election, pay particular attention to which cases in which states may emerge as important on November 3rd.
Without being too bullish, there remains the possibility that a candidate calls the election for themselves on the night of November 3rd without a truly decisive, complete, or independently authenticated victory. Large tech companies will have to decide whether or not to allow posts they deem to be misinformation to remain up on their platforms. Companies like Twitter and Facebook have been preparing their teams to handle election misinformation for months. Twitter will not allow individuals to retweet posts that have been flagged with warnings. Facebook has already halted political advertising in the days leading up to the election. Be on the lookout for any controversial scenarios related to election misinformation, particularly on large social media platforms, on the night of the election.
5. Also, despite cable news’ fondness for them, ignore exit polls.
Exit polls typically refer to surveys taken of individuals leaving polling stations. In their ideal form, exit polls help analysts tease out what occurred during an election after official results are known by breaking down voter demographics and qualities. However, cable news is fond of using them to inform viewers of faux-results before official results are known during an election. In any given year, exit polls remain unpredictable. Exit poll numbers can change over the course of an election night, particularly when older voters tend to vote earlier in the day than younger voters. This year, in particular, they have the potential to be greatly misleading. Pollsters have never dealt with such varied numbers of early voters, mail-in ballots, ballot drop-boxes, and so on. So, especially this year, do not give too much credence to exit polls.
The 2020 presidential election will inevitably go down in the history books as both unique and consequential. Although partisanship (and stress levels) are as high as ever, it is paramount that viewers on Tuesday night remain calm and informed. Pay attention to what matters, not what simply flashes across your TV screen. Be patient, trust the process, and most importantly…vote!
Zachary Guffey is a second-year Master of Public Policy candidate at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy, participating through an accelerated 4+1 program.
