The question of choice: an analysis of public opinion on abortion in the United States in 2022
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay
By: Jamie Chornoby
The recent Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization (2022) decision weakened sexual and reproductive healthcare rights in the United States. The decision also overturned Roe v. Wade (1973), a landmark case that defended personal privacy, including the right to decide whether to end a pregnancy. Although Americans struggle to secure sexual and reproductive healthcare services at the judicial and legislative levels, public opinion tends to support abortion access.
Reviewing public opinion polls from PEW Research Center and Gallup, most American adults support the legalization of abortion. Levels of support for abortion vary by political party, age, race, and education level. Younger people, people with high levels of educational attainment, and non-evangelicals show the greatest support. Democrats more strongly support unrestricted abortion access than Republicans surveyed. Most Americans believed abortion was a key issue in the 2022 Congressional midterms, with it being a top-three issue for Democratic voters. These polls suggest that the American public will continue to support abortion access in the coming years.
(1) Most Americans continue to support abortion rights.
In 2022, Pew Research Center found that 61% of polled American adults reported that they believe abortion should be legal in “all” or “most” cases. This support is consistent with survey findings since the 1990s. When broadening the responses to include “some circumstances”, commissioned surveys conducted by Gallup provide even higher estimates with 85% of American voters believing that abortion should be legal.
Furthermore, polls suggest that more Americans are identifying with “pro-choice” labels, rather than quietly adopting abortion access stances. In surveys asking if respondents consider themselves “to be pro-choice or pro-life”, 55% of Americans surveyed reported that they are pro-choice. That marks a six percentage point increase between 2021 and 2022, suggesting that the most recent wave of attacks on abortion access may have intensified pro-choice stances.
(2) Disagreement over the Dobbs decision varies by political identification.
57% of Americans disapprove of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Yet, there are strong partisan distinctions in the polling. Approximately 82% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents disapprove the court’s decision. On the other hand, 70% of Republicans and Republican-leaning moderates approve of the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. The proportion of Democrats who support Roe v. Wade has stayed relatively consistent throughout 2022, but there was an increase from 38% to 45% of Democrats who believe abortion should be legal in all cases. Pollsters have not found a greater intensity of anti-abortion stances among Republicans polled.
(3) Young, college educated, and nonreligious people are most opposed to overturning Roe.
In addition to party affiliation, support and opposition to abortion access is correlated with demography in some cases. Considering age, approximately two-thirds of adults under age 49 disapprove of overturning Roe v. Wade. Differences also emerge when analyzing education rates.
As education rates increase, so do respondents’ disapproval of the Supreme Court’s decision. If younger people maintain their strong support and if Americans’ education rates continue to increase, these findings suggest that the public’s support of abortion access may grow in the coming decade. The majority of all racial groups surveyed disapprove of the decision. Asian and Black respondents most strongly opposed overturning of Roe, a finding that is consistent with prior polling. Hispanics show the least disapproval of overturning Roe, perhaps because of higher degrees of religiosity among Hispanic populations.
(4) Americans considered abortion a major issue during the 2022 midterm election.
Pew polling indicates that most Americans surveyed considered abortion “very important” when asked about the 2022 Congressional elections. From March to August, this ranking jumped from 43% to 56%, a 13% increase. Considering party lines, Democratic voters ranked abortion in the top-3 most important issues, suggesting that Democratic voters are motivated by abortion access.
Policy Implications
Survey data indicates that most adults in the U.S. support access to abortion, with an increasing proportion of the public identifying as pro-choice and favoring unrestricted legalization. Still, differences among demographics exist: Democrats, adults younger than 30, women, Black Americans, and postgraduates are most supportive of the right to abortion. Considering these findings, the public would likely support judiciary and legislative efforts to protect abortion rights. Policymakers in favor of abortion access who have strong constituent backing should take action to protect reproductive rights through legislation while public engagement and support are strong.
However, targeted messaging, careful framing, and strategic mobilization are important considering the wide variance in opinion within and between demographic groups and communities. There is no one unified path to securing abortion access on a state or local level. Ballot initiatives in California, Michigan, and Vermont secured abortion protections in 2022, while ballot initiatives compromising abortion access were defeated in Montana, Kentucky, and Kansas. No two states have identical political landscapes, nor do they have identical pathways to abortion protection. Policymakers who advocate abortion access must continue to try to find common ground until federal protections are secured again.
Jamie Chornoby is a Master of Public Policy student at Duke University. She has worked to improve healthcare access, champion reproductive justice, protect labor rights, and secure electoral turnout.
